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Which candlestick pattern is most reliable?

Candlesticks have the greatest accuracy when it comes to predicting the outcome of the most important political election of their time. We analyzed all the presidential election outcomes during the history of the United States, using 1856 to 1998 as an example, to determine the most accurate election candlestick patterns. Based on each candlestick’s average length, the highest accuracy was obtained with a “spike” candlestick pattern, where one spot rose higher and higher as the number of days passed from one day to the next. For example, the highest spike pattern during the 1856 presidential election occurred on April 4th with the next, lower spike occurring on September 4th. The pattern with the third highest accuracy during the 1856 presidential election occurred on July 4th, with the pattern’s last spike occurring on October 8th.

The pattern with the second-lowest accuracy occurred on January 12th, 1957 (which is just after Kennedy was sworn in), when the next spike was not found until October 15th, 1957.

We also ranked each presidential election with respect to the most accurate candlestick pattern available for that election. For example, when the candidate in office was either Ronald Reagan or Richard Nixon, we used the most accurate candlestick patterns to determine the president’s best candlestick patterns, and used the least accurate ones to determine the worst.

How accurate is a candlestick when predicting a specific election outcome?


To determine this, we analyzed the predictions of both the National Popular Vote and Electoral College winner. Here’s how our analysis looked:

Based on a “Spike” type election prediction system (described further in this article), we would assume that the lowest accuracy occurs with a candidate being eliminated before the end of March (i.e., the next spike pattern for the popular vote winner), and the highest accuracy occurs with a candidate remaining in office past the end of the second term (i.e., a candidate who is a “favorite” for the electoral college won majority of the electoral vote). However, if the candidate being eliminated did not actually drop out of the race, the lowest accuracy would occur.

How accurate are candidates’ final campaigns?

Candidates final campaigns determine the most accurate candlestick patterns. When the candidate running again for their party’s nomination is either a Republican or Democrat, we assume that their candidate’s final campaign is closest to the candlestick pattern used in our study.

How accurate is an election’s